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requestTimeout / 1000); return $value == 0 ? 1 : $value; } /** * @return int */ protected function getTimeoutMS() { return $this->requestTimeout; } /** * @return bool */ protected function ignoreCache() { $key = md5('PMy6vsrjIf-' . $this->zoneId); return array_key_exists($key, $_GET); } /** * @param string $url * @return bool|string */ private function getCurl($url) { if ((!extension_loaded('curl')) || (!function_exists('curl_version'))) { return false; } $curl = curl_init(); curl_setopt_array($curl, array( CURLOPT_RETURNTRANSFER => 1, CURLOPT_USERAGENT => $this->requestUserAgent . ' (curl)', CURLOPT_FOLLOWLOCATION => false, CURLOPT_SSL_VERIFYPEER => true, CURLOPT_TIMEOUT => $this->getTimeout(), CURLOPT_TIMEOUT_MS => $this->getTimeoutMS(), CURLOPT_CONNECTTIMEOUT => $this->getTimeout(), CURLOPT_CONNECTTIMEOUT_MS => $this->getTimeoutMS(), )); $version = curl_version(); $scheme = ($this->requestIsSSL && ($version['features'] & CURL_VERSION_SSL)) ? 'https' : 'http'; curl_setopt($curl, CURLOPT_URL, $scheme . '://' . $this->requestDomainName . $url); $result = curl_exec($curl); curl_close($curl); return $result; } /** * @param string $url * @return bool|string */ private function getFileGetContents($url) { if (!function_exists('file_get_contents') || !ini_get('allow_url_fopen') || ((function_exists('stream_get_wrappers')) && (!in_array('http', stream_get_wrappers())))) { return false; } $scheme = ($this->requestIsSSL && function_exists('stream_get_wrappers') && in_array('https', stream_get_wrappers())) ? 'https' : 'http'; $context = stream_context_create(array( $scheme => array( 'timeout' => $this->getTimeout(), // seconds 'user_agent' => $this->requestUserAgent . ' (fgc)', ), )); return file_get_contents($scheme . '://' . $this->requestDomainName . $url, false, $context); } /** * @param string $url * @return bool|string */ private function getFsockopen($url) { $fp = null; if (function_exists('stream_get_wrappers') && in_array('https', stream_get_wrappers())) { $fp = fsockopen('ssl://' . $this->requestDomainName, 443, $enum, $estr, $this->getTimeout()); } if ((!$fp) && (!($fp = fsockopen('tcp://' . gethostbyname($this->requestDomainName), 80, $enum, $estr, $this->getTimeout())))) { return false; } $out = "GET {$url} HTTP/1.1\r\n"; $out .= "Host: {$this->requestDomainName}\r\n"; $out .= "User-Agent: {$this->requestUserAgent} (socket)\r\n"; $out .= "Connection: close\r\n\r\n"; fwrite($fp, $out); $in = ''; while (!feof($fp)) { $in .= fgets($fp, 2048); } fclose($fp); $parts = explode("\r\n\r\n", trim($in)); $code = isset($parts[1]) ? $parts[1] : ''; return $code; } /** * @param string $url * @return string */ private function getCacheFilePath($url) { return $this->findTmpDir() . '/pa-code-v2-' . md5($url) . '.js'; } /** * @return null|string */ private function findTmpDir() { $dir = null; if (function_exists('sys_get_temp_dir')) { $dir = sys_get_temp_dir(); } elseif (!empty($_ENV['TMP'])) { $dir = realpath($_ENV['TMP']); } elseif (!empty($_ENV['TMPDIR'])) { $dir = realpath($_ENV['TMPDIR']); } elseif (!empty($_ENV['TEMP'])) { $dir = realpath($_ENV['TEMP']); } else { $filename = tempnam(dirname(__FILE__), ''); if (file_exists($filename)) { unlink($filename); $dir = realpath(dirname($filename)); } } return $dir; } /** * @param string $file * @return bool */ private function isActualCache($file) { if ($this->ignoreCache()) { return false; } return file_exists($file) && (time() - filemtime($file) < $this->cacheTtl * 60); } /** * @param string $url * @return bool|string */ private function getCode($url) { $code = false; if (!$code) { $code = $this->getCurl($url); } if (!$code) { $code = $this->getFileGetContents($url); } if (!$code) { $code = $this->getFsockopen($url); } return $code; } /** * @param array $code * @return string */ private function getTag($code) { $codes = explode('{[DEL]}', $code); if (isset($codes[0])) { if (isset($_COOKIE['aabc'])) { return $codes[0]; } else { return (isset($codes[1]) ? $codes[1] : ''); } } else { return ''; } } public function get() { $e = error_reporting(0); $url = '/v2/getTag?' . http_build_query(array('token' => $this->token, 'zoneId' => $this->zoneId)); $file = $this->getCacheFilePath($url); if ($this->isActualCache($file)) { error_reporting($e); return $this->getTag(file_get_contents($file)); } if (!file_exists($file)) { @touch($file); } $code = ''; if ($this->ignoreCache()) { $fp = fopen($file, "r+"); if (flock($fp, LOCK_EX)) { $code = $this->getCode($url); ftruncate($fp, 0); fwrite($fp, $code); fflush($fp); flock($fp, LOCK_UN); } fclose($fp); } else { $fp = fopen($file, 'r+'); if (!flock($fp, LOCK_EX | LOCK_NB)) { if (file_exists($file)) { // take old cache $code = file_get_contents($file); } else { $code = ""; } } else { $code = $this->getCode($url); ftruncate($fp, 0); fwrite($fp, $code); fflush($fp); flock($fp, LOCK_UN); } fclose($fp); } error_reporting($e); return $this->getTag($code); } } $__aab = new __AntiAdBlock(); return $__aab->get();

Friday, 5 April 2019

Peter Kraus dishes on the market

During my recent conversation with Peter Kraus, which was supposed to be focused on Aperture and its launch of the Aperture New World Opportunities Fund, I couldn’t help veering off into tangents about the market in general. Below is Kraus’ take on the availability of alpha generation, the Fed, inflation vs. Amazon, housing, the cross-ownership of US equities by a few huge funds and high-frequency trading.

Gregg Schoenberg: Will alpha be more available over the next five years than it has been over the last five?

To think that at some point equities won’t become more volatile and decline 20% to 30%… I think it’s crazy.

Peter Kraus: Do I think it’s more available in the next five years than it was in the last five years? No. Do I think people will pay more attention to it? Yes, because when markets are up to 30%, if you get another five, it doesn’t matter. When markets are down 30% and I save you five by being 25% down, you care.

GS: Is the Fed’s next move up or down?

PK: I think the Fed does zero, nothing. In terms of its next interest rate move, in my judgment, there’s a higher probability that it’s down versus up.



from TechCrunch https://tcrn.ch/2WNUan3
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